June recap
In the wake of the US’s part in bombings in Iran, prices soared before quickly eroding. Curiously in the wake of these strikes, ceasefires were observed in both the Ukraine/Russia and Iran/Israel/Palestine conflicts, albeit these were short lived. Trade wars between the US and other nations, mainly China also played a part in the price make up. Gas storage in the UK remained a concern as injections were scarce with levels dropping to their lowest in the last two years. Renewables were strong in the generation mix with Wind providing an impressive 6.85 TWh to Gas 3.85 TWh. Spiking temperatures saw only marginal declines in power demand from May, attributed largely to air cooling load.
July
Wind receded during July leaving gas to pick up the slack in the energy generation mix. Wind generated 4.20 TWh vs Gas 5.47 TWh. Reductions in Nuclear, Imported Power and Biomass were also observed with only Solar’s output increasing from the renewable sources. Although a lot of attention was given to France struggling to keep its Nuclear power plants cool with rising river temperatures, Norway exported no power to the UK during the month. Despite an increase in gas burn for electricity, a gentle increase in natural gas storage was observed that is sorely needed as levels are the lowest seen since the energy crisis. Some data analysis showed that there are not enough days in the summer injection period to reach 90% full, which created little waves. However, the storage levels are potentially preceding a larger issue in winter. Liquified Natural Gas demand in Asia was being monitored closely as they are in the throes of typical high demand to provide electricity for air cooling. However, prices remained relatively flat throughout the month indicating little reaction. The rejection of Zonal pricing proposals by the Government seemed also to provide some impetus for prices to soften particularly in electricity.
After June saw a good bit of Geopolitics influence pricing, however, July was mostly calm. There were some rumblings from Trump about tariffs on Russia and a new arms deal with Ukraine.
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